Can Greece defeat Turkey
Greece has historically invested in recruiting professional personnel, while Turkey relies more on conscripts. Greece argues that international law, as detailed in the widely-ratified 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), gives it an inalienable right to extend its territorial seas to twelve nautical miles from the present six. In this interview, Crisis Group's Libya Expert Claudia Gazzini try to provide some insight into Turkey's relation with Libya and the Mediterranean neighbourhood. The Turkish Navy, for its part, mostly uses Harpoon missiles.Both countries have special SEALs that are specialized in naval and coastal warfare.
But Turkey would also benefit economically, and, as importantly, a settlement could reinvigorate its EU relationship and increase the credibility of its “zero problems” foreign policy with neighbours. Turkey fears that a Greek territorial seas extension could cut off its access to high seas shipping routes and to the Aegean continental shelf. To illustrate the significance of this upgrade, we should consider that currently the longest-range missile in the Greek arsenal is 180 km. It describes the delimitation of the continental shelf as the main problem and says it must be settled by the International Court of Justice (ICJ), not bilateral negotiations. But if Ankara and Athens settle their Aegean dispute, that step could help both to persuade Greek Cypriots of Turkey’s goodwill and to polish Turkey’s EU credentials. Although Greece boasts a much larger navy, in terms of navy-owned planes, it lacks an advantage here due to the urgent need to replace its P-3B fleet. By contrast, Turkey’s Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea regions are largely bereft of islands, while their room to maneuver in the Aegean is severely constrained due to the proximity of Greek territory up and down much of the Anatolian coast.The Greek Navy occasionally trains alongside those of the USA, UK, Israel, Holland and France. It is assumed that both countries also operate spy vessels that travel as commercial or fishing boats, and that are used for telecommunications surveillance.Since the 1974 invasion of Cyprus and division of the island, Turkey has supported the development of offensive and defensive installations on the northern third of the island, the non-recognized ‘Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.’However, both countries have historically had direct involvement and devised long-term contingency plans for any possible future showdown that would require their participation. Greece and Turkey, should they go to war because of Cyprus, would most probably provide naval support, in addition to other military support needed.
To capitalise on twelve years of normalisation, and at a time when both could benefit from a foreign policy success, Greece and Turkey should settle their expensive, outdated and stressful stand-off over Aegean Sea maritime zones and related issues.
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